Fold Equity Curves
Concept
Developed by Exxon13: analysis of Fold Equity (FE) across streets depending on board structure. Based on real studies and filtered hands. Helps to:
- Build balanced and exploitative bluff lines
- Understand peaks and valleys of fold equity
- Effectively apply 3-barrel lines
Types of Fold Equity Curves
| Type | FE (Flop → Turn → River) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Descent | High → Medium → Low | Classic, maximum pressure on the flop |
| Valley | Medium → Low → High | Pressure on flop and river, weak turn |
| Hill | Low → High → Low | Strong pressure on the turn |
| Rise | Low → Medium → High | Play toward the river (overcards) |
| Plain | Even FE | GTO balance, no pronounced peaks |
Descent Curve
Structures:
- Dry boards: K82r, Q74r, A93r
- IP has few connections, PFR dominates with overcards
Approximate FE:
| Flop | Turn | River |
| 42% | 38% | 33% |
Strategy:
- Flop: 30% c-bet always
- Turn: 50–70% (depending on the card)
- River: rarely, only on the strongest runouts
Valley Curve
Structures:
- Medium/low draw-heavy boards with blank turns
- Examples: 952ss → 8, 964r → 5
Features:
- Opponents carry weak hands to the river (low FE on the turn)
- High FE returns on the river
FE by streets:
| Flop | Turn | River |
| 36% | 33% | 60% |
Plan:
- Flop: 30% c-bet (if planning barreling)
- Turn: bet for the river, even if -EV
- River: jam/bet, realize accumulated FE
Alternative:
- If not planning to bet the river — use 70% flop and give up
- Line: Bet → Check → Bet (if in position)
Rise Curve
Structures:
- Low boards with overcards on turn/river
- Examples: 369r → J → A, 458 → K → A
Features:
- FE grows with each street when overcards appear
- King, queen, jack are better than ace on the turn
- Ace is stronger as a river card
FE by streets:
| Flop | Turn | River |
| 18% | 44% | 60% |
Plan:
- Flop: 30% c-bet (FE minimal)
- Turn: 70% bet on overcard
- River: 50–70% bet (final pressure)
In any runout — use bet-bet-bet bluff line if overcard appears.
Common Presets
RFI vs BB (Single Raised Pot, IP)
- Descent and Rise curves most frequent.
- Flop: small c-bet (25–33% pot) on dry boards.
- Turn: pressure increases when overcards appear.
- River: high FE if range advantage maintained.
SRP OOP (e.g., BB vs CO open)
- Valley curve often realized: flop pressure, weak turn, high river FE.
- Flop: selective c-bet (30–40%).
- Turn: check more often, prepare for river bluff.
- River: polarized jam/bet.
3-Bet Pots IP
- Descent curve dominant: strong FE on flop, decreasing later.
- Flop: frequent c-bet (high FE).
- Turn: continue on favorable cards, reduce frequency otherwise.
- River: bet thinly, focus on value/bluff balance.
3-Bet Pots OOP
- Hill curve possible: flop checks, strong turn pressure.
- Flop: check high frequency, few small bets.
- Turn: heavy pressure on scare cards.
- River: limited bluffing, rely on polarized range.
Conclusions
- Understanding the FE curve is critical for effective bluffing
- Depending on board structure: apply pressure where FE peaks
- Sometimes the turn is only a setup for the river — do not abandon it prematurely
- FE depends on board texture and perceived ranges, not on the hand itself
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