What is ICM in Poker

ICM · updated 2026-03-08

ICM (Independent Chip Model) is a mathematical model used in tournaments to estimate the monetary value of chips. In simple terms

ICM = monetary expression of your stack

It takes into account

• Your stack size
• The total tournament prize pool
• The winning chances for each participant

How is ICM Calculated

For calculation, the following are used

• Stacks of all players
• Prize distribution
• Total prize pool

Simplified formula

ICM Value = (Total Prize Pool Total Chips) × Stack Size

Note This is a simplification. Actual ICM uses a sequential elimination algorithm — simulating the probability of finishing in each place and the corresponding prize.

ICM Example

3 players remain

• Player 1 — 4000 chips
• Player 2 — 2500 chips
• Player 3 — 1500 chips

Prize pool $360

• 1st $216
• 2nd $108
• 3rd $36

After ICM calculation (approximate figures)

• Player 1 ≈ $170
• Player 2 ≈ $120
• Player 3 ≈ $70

A short stack should take more risks, and the chip leader should apply pressure carefully.

Why Folding Can Be +EV

Final table of 9 players, each with 1000 chips.
Prize pool $90

• 1st $36
• 2nd $18
• 3rd $9

An all-in occurs between the 1st and 9th players.
The 1st wins, gaining 100 chips, but in monetary terms — less than what the 9th lost.

Players who folded earned money.
Lost chips are worth more than gained chips.

Formulas

Bubble Factor
Bubble Factor = EV Lost EV Gained

Required Equity
Required Equity = Bubble Factor (1 + Bubble Factor)

Risk Premium
Risk Premium = ICM equity − chipEV equity

Example

• EV Lost = $100
• EV Gained = $84.44
• → Bubble Factor = 100 84.44 ≈ 1.18
• → Required Equity = 1.18 (1 + 1.18) ≈ 54%
• → Risk Premium = 54% − 50% = +4%

The equity threshold for calling increases — you now need 54%, not 50%.

ICM Pressure

The most pressure occurs

• On the bubble (one elimination before ITM)
• On the final table bubble
• With short stacks near the prizes

In these situations, mistakes are catastrophic for EV.

GTO Wizard Experiment

Bots tested different strategies

• 200 participants in the tournament
• First tournament 95.5% chipEV strategy, 4.5% ICM consideration
• Second tournament 100% ICM-based strategy

Most profitable strategy — considering ICM from the start of the tournament.

In practice start considering ICM after about 50% of players have been eliminated.

Conclusion

• ICM is a critical model for tournament EV
• It teaches you to value prize money, not just chip accumulation
• Sometimes the best decision is to fold
• It pressures short stacks and encourages aggression from chip leaders
• It accounts for risks not present in cash games
• Works best when you understand and apply it in practice

ICM Wisdom

Lost chips are more valuable than gained chips
Sometimes passive play yields more profit than aggressive play